It´s interesting, since this article was written I think the situation has reversed. Too many people no longer make sure things work in IE6, even though over 20 of people still use it.
Your predictions are still correct. Many sites are now reporting that Firefox holds roughly 31 - 35 market share, and some even report as high as 40. While Internet Explorer may never become the minority, it will most likely not be the majority ever again.
Does the world need another Web browser? Why not just collaborate with Mozilla on Firefox? Webkit http://www.frogmix.com/search/webkit Firefox Chrome stand a better chance together rather than apart, donâ€™t they? Feels to me like the million Linux distros and their corresponding desktops. If they could all get together, users would be better off.
See Original Article:
"Website Browser Statistics and Design Quality"